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Builder Confidence Dips as Industry Gauges Market Conditions

Builder confidence continues to falter, with the national Housing Market Index (HMI) falling to 32, a 29% drop year over year. Confidence in the Western U.S. remains especially low, with an HMI of just 22. The HMI, based on a monthly NAHB survey, reflects how builders view current and future conditions in the single-family housing market.

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Homing in on Our Region's Housing Statistics

Despite headlines about a housing market cooldown and home prices dipping slightly compared to last month, median housing prices continue to rise year over year, with an 8.03% rise and a 22.29% rise in King and Snohomish counties, respectively, for combined single family and condo sales. Likewise, for-sale housing supply continues to drop, with both King and Snohomish counties—and much of the state—more accurately described as having weeks of supply, not months. Year over year, months of supply dropped 59% in King County and 37% in Snohomish County. There is at least some relief on the horizon, however, as year to date residential building permit activity is up 30% in our two-county region.

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Months' Supply of Housing Inventory

As of November 2021

	King County had 0.38 months' supply of inventory (down from 0.93 months' of inventory a year ago).
	Snohomish County had 0.24 months' supply of inventory (down from 0.38 a year ago).

Many industry analysts consider a four-to-six-month level as an indicator of a healthy market.

Source: Northwest Multiple Listing Service

Median Home Price

November 2021

	The median price of single-family homes and condos was $740,000 in King County and $658,505 in Snohomish County.
	For single-family homes only, the median price in King County rose 12.25%, from $730,500 a year ago to $820,000. The median price in Snohomish County rose 22.79%, from $566,000 to $695,000.
	In Seattle, the median price of single-family homes and condos was $765,000. The median price for single-family homes only was $850,000, a 3.66% increase from $820,000 in November 2020.

Source: Northwest Multiple Listing Service

Building Permit Activity

Jobs

	The seasonally adjusted Washington unemployment rate for November 2021 is 4.7%; for Seattle/Bellevue/Everett, it is 4.4%.
	Construction employment in Washington increased by 1,800 between October 2021 and November 2021. Total construction employment is 229,400 statewide and 110,200 for Seattle/Bellevue/Everett specifically.

Source: Employment Security Department: WA Employment Estimates (Seasonally Adjusted), November 2021 and Bureau of Labor Statistics.

Population

The Puget Sound region's population as of April 1, 2021 was 4,330,400. Over the past year, the region added 66,200 people, as follows:

Source: Office of Financial Management

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By MBAKS Senior Policy Analyst Allison Butcher

The supply of housing inventory for sale stood at 1.74 months in King County and 1.47 months in Snohomish County in August, which is down slightly from a year ago.  Meanwhile, single-family building permits were down 8% YTD and multifamily permits down 5% in the three-county Seattle Metro Area (King, Snohomish, and Pierce counties) as of July, compared to the same period last year. 

The Builder's Bulletin is intended to provide a convenient way to track housing in our market and includes information from the Northwest Multiple Listing Service, State of the Cities Data Systems, Office of Financial Management and the Washington State Employment Security Department.

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