By Allison Butcher, Senior Policy Analyst, MBAKS

On Wednesday, January 31, the Master Builders Association of King and Snohomish Counties (MBAKS) kicked off its first general membership meeting of the year—an economic forecast breakfast presented by the association’s Sales & Marketing Council.

The breakfast took place at The Westin Bellevue and featured presentations by Metrostudy Regional Director Todd Britsch and Morgan Stanley Financial Advisor Dan Becraft, C(k)P QPFC.

Becraft touched on highlights of Morgan Stanley’s investment outlook for 2018. In short, the report states that global economic expansion delivered strong returns last year but we should not expect the same in 2018. Morgan Stanley is not anticipating a recession this year, but rather that markets will begin to normalize.

The forecast already factors in recent tax cuts, Becraft said. A look back at the U.S. stock market over the last 37 years shows that tax cuts are not correlated to market performance. In the year after President Ronald Reagan’s tax cuts took effect in the 1980s, for example, the market dropped.

Morgan Stanley Financial Advisor Dan Becraft, C(k)P QPFC (Alabastro Photography)

Becraft offered additional observations, including ways in which demographics influence a country’s economy, predictions on interest rates (he expects they will stay low and may even be cut), and more.

The biggest risk to our economy going forward, he noted, is our national debt, which stands at $20 trillion. However, China’s national debt is significantly higher. Whereas the United States’ debt-to-GDP ratio is around 100 percent, the ratio in China is closer to 460 percent. Becraft said some are speculating this could lead to a move by China within 36 months to repatriate capital that has flowed out of their country in recent years. If this were to happen, it could result in investments being pulled out of real estate in the United States, including the Seattle market, and transferred back to China.

Britsch focused on economic and housing data in the Puget Sound region and provided compelling information in his presentation as well, particularly related to the lack of future housing inventories.

Britsch’s presentation highlighted the fact that population and job growth continue to be very strong in the Puget Sound region, with 137,000 jobs added since 2015 and continued low unemployment in King and Snohomish counties. Furthermore, data from the Department of Licensing show that net driver in-migration into the region has averaged more than 6,300 per month since 2012, for a total of 460,000 new drivers from outside the area.

Metrostudy Regional Director Todd Britsch (Alabastro Photography)

Britsch also stressed that housing supply is not keeping up with demand. Looking at the driver license data, he estimates this growth has created a demand for 100,000 owner-occupied homes between 2012 and 2017. However, during this time, we have built and sold roughly 60,000 homes, creating a housing supply shortfall and causing upward pressure on home prices. The average list price for new construction within formal subdivisions, Britsch stated, has risen 20 percent in Snohomish County and 24 percent in King County year over year.

Britsch warned we are running out of land at a rapid pace. With 10 months’ supply of vacant developed lots in Snohomish County, he said we’re at "crisis level" in terms of lot inventory. The North Creek market area, which has been very robust in recent years, has dried up, Britsch said.

Since 2009, the entire Puget Sound region has had a net loss of 3,018 lots coming out of the system, not to be replaced. More importantly, in that same time frame, the available finished lot inventory has declined by 17,879. Britsch also pointed to Northwest Multiple Listing Service data, which shows King and Snohomish counties have just over a two-week supply of homes for sale.

Although the current housing market is showing signs of weakening, Britsch believes it will remain strong. The housing market is all part of a cycle and we can expect an adjustment in sales, he said. Britsch predicts core areas from King County to South Snohomish County will continue to see double-digit appreciation due to lack of inventory.

Founded in 1909, the Master Builders Association of King and Snohomish Counties (MBAKS) has grown to become the largest residential homebuilders association in the United States. With 2,900 member companies, the association is dedicated to membership value, housing advocacy, community service, and financial stewardship throughout the Puget Sound region.

By MBAKS Senior Policy Analyst Allison Butcher

Data from the Northwest Multiple Listing Service show the month’s supply of housing inventory for sale continuing to decline in King and Snohomish counties. In November, King County had 0.93 months’ supply of inventory, down from 0.99 the previous month, and 1.39 months’ of inventory a year ago. Even more concerning, Snohomish County had just 0.38 months’ supply of inventory in November, down from 0.49 the prior month and 1.27 a year ago.

The Builder's Bulletin is intended to provide a convenient way to track housing in our market and includes information from the Northwest Multiple Listing Service, State of the Cities Data Systems, Office of Financial Management, and the Washington State Employment Security Department.

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Forget your favorite tiny home hunter show for a minute—this is real life. Despite what the media tells us, homeowners and homebuilders, have only very recently begun to shrink their standards in favor of more compact confines.

In the 1990s, if you can remember back that far, about 23.2 percent of homes built were 3,000 square feet or more according to a builderonline.com article based on data taken from the Census Bureau American Housing Survey (AHS). But after the recession, square footage dropped, right? Not so much. The study, which looked at the years between 1990 and 2015, saw the number of 3,000-plus square foot homes built actually increase to 28.6 percent from 2010 to 2015. In fact, the tiny trend didn't really start picking up steam until mid-2016, when millennials and other such first-time buyers became a big enough segment to affect census numbers.

What's interesting is that the minor dent young folks and first-timers are putting in the overall evolution of expanse isn't enough yet to pull builders off course. As labor and land costs expand with our house sizes, builders are less likely to put themselves at risk, opting to operate in the higher-end housing market boasting secure returns, as opposed to taking a less calculated dip into the lower-end income pool and the smaller—dare we say ‘tiny'—household segment.

Does that mean lower-end shoppers are out of luck?

Not necessarily. Townhouse construction is on the rise, accounting for 9 percent of single-family homes from 2010-2015 (up from 6 percent during the ‘90s), and, according to the Builder article, recent data reports show townhouse construction making upwards of 12 percent of total construction in current quarters.

Will townhomes and tiny houses continue to creep into the bigger picture? Time will tell, but it's safe to say as costs continue to rise and people continue coming to hotspots like Seattle and the Puget Sound region, both builders and buyers will continue to push traditional housing boundaries and seek out less expensive, more practical means of housing.

Should be an interesting evolutionary ride.

Craving more on less? Check out Seattle's tiny home revolution.