By MBAKS Senior Policy Analyst Allison Butcher

Data in the latest Builders Bulletin show a mixed bag for building permit activity in the first half of 2022. Multifamily permits in the Seattle Metro Area rose 20% in June, compared to the same period last year, led by King County where it was up 30%. Multifamily permit activity was relatively flat in Snohomish and Pierce counties.

Meanwhile, single family permits are down 17% across the Seattle Metro area as of June. Separately, the NAHB/Wells-Fargo Housing Market Index, which measures the confidence of single-family builders nationwide, has been falling amid higher interest rates and ongoing supply chain problems. Read NAHB’s latest press release on its builder confidence survey.

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Housing Choices Toolkit Released to Assist With Local Planning

Toolkit offers proven policies to help create more housing choices so current residents, newcomers, and future generations can find a home that best fits their lives

BELLEVUE, Wash—August 19, 2020—Today, the Master Builders Association of King and Snohomish Counties (MBAKS) released a toolkit designed to help local communities create more housing choices.

As the Puget Sound region advances its collective response to the health, economic, and social crises created by the COVID-19 pandemic, those in the local homebuilding industry stand with their fellow community members. In creating and distributing this Housing Toolkit, MBAKS continues its collaborative approach to encourage the creation of more housing and more variety.

“Our region has for years been grappling with a housing crisis, and the pandemic and related economic crisis have significantly amplified the need for solutions that create more diverse and affordable housing choices for all,” said MBAKS Executive Director Kat Sims.

“We are often asked by local governments and community leaders for actionable ideas and solutions to plan for and enable more housing choices that fit the unique needs of each community. We are providing this toolkit in a spirit of partnership so cities and counties may more easily find a spectrum of proven housing policies and see which of their neighboring communities are already implementing these ideas.”

The MBAKS Housing Toolkit contains 37 specific code updates and process improvements jurisdictions can take to help provide more diverse, more affordable housing for our growing population. The toolkit is intended to serve the unique local needs of individual communities, help protect what current residents already love about our region and support the broader regional effort to plan for more housing choices.

Regulations and long permit timelines can create significant obstacles for those seeking housing by driving up costs and pushing new homes even further out of reach for many buyers and renters. There are, however, simple steps cities and counties can take today to help ease some of these regulatory burdens and reduce certain cost pressures on new housing without compromising environmental protections or other important policy goals.

All the tools featured in the toolkit can be adopted locally. None of them require state-enabling legislation. Included throughout the toolkit are examples of local jurisdictions already utilizing these tools and model codes that cities can reference. Some examples include policies that support accessory dwelling units (ADUs) in single-family zones, reduced parking requirements near transit, planning tools that facilitate infill development, video inspections, more transparency in permit timeline data, Built Green incentives, and affordable housing levies.

The MBAKS Housing Toolkit also includes a chart indicating the effectiveness of each measure to facilitate housing.

View the Housing Toolkit

About MBAKS

Founded in 1909 and headquartered in Bellevue, Washington, the Master Builders Association of King and Snohomish Counties (MBAKS) is the nation’s oldest and largest local homebuilders association. Like our founders, our members continue to take a leading role in all facets of homebuilding and support the planning for a growing region. From new technology to advances in sustainability and from collaborative public policy efforts to investing in our communities, our commitment to a thriving, inclusive, and well-planned region never wavers. We are the professional homebuilders, architects, remodelers, tradespeople (carpenters, framers, roofers, plumbers, electricians), planners and engineers, suppliers, manufacturers, and sales and marketing professionals in your community who believe everyone deserves access to a healthy and productive place to call home.

By Allison Butcher, Senior Policy Analyst, MBAKS

On Wednesday, January 31, the Master Builders Association of King and Snohomish Counties (MBAKS) kicked off its first general membership meeting of the year—an economic forecast breakfast presented by the association’s Sales & Marketing Council.

The breakfast took place at The Westin Bellevue and featured presentations by Metrostudy Regional Director Todd Britsch and Morgan Stanley Financial Advisor Dan Becraft, C(k)P QPFC.

Becraft touched on highlights of Morgan Stanley’s investment outlook for 2018. In short, the report states that global economic expansion delivered strong returns last year but we should not expect the same in 2018. Morgan Stanley is not anticipating a recession this year, but rather that markets will begin to normalize.

The forecast already factors in recent tax cuts, Becraft said. A look back at the U.S. stock market over the last 37 years shows that tax cuts are not correlated to market performance. In the year after President Ronald Reagan’s tax cuts took effect in the 1980s, for example, the market dropped.

Morgan Stanley Financial Advisor Dan Becraft, C(k)P QPFC (Alabastro Photography)

Becraft offered additional observations, including ways in which demographics influence a country’s economy, predictions on interest rates (he expects they will stay low and may even be cut), and more.

The biggest risk to our economy going forward, he noted, is our national debt, which stands at $20 trillion. However, China’s national debt is significantly higher. Whereas the United States’ debt-to-GDP ratio is around 100 percent, the ratio in China is closer to 460 percent. Becraft said some are speculating this could lead to a move by China within 36 months to repatriate capital that has flowed out of their country in recent years. If this were to happen, it could result in investments being pulled out of real estate in the United States, including the Seattle market, and transferred back to China.

Britsch focused on economic and housing data in the Puget Sound region and provided compelling information in his presentation as well, particularly related to the lack of future housing inventories.

Britsch’s presentation highlighted the fact that population and job growth continue to be very strong in the Puget Sound region, with 137,000 jobs added since 2015 and continued low unemployment in King and Snohomish counties. Furthermore, data from the Department of Licensing show that net driver in-migration into the region has averaged more than 6,300 per month since 2012, for a total of 460,000 new drivers from outside the area.

Metrostudy Regional Director Todd Britsch (Alabastro Photography)

Britsch also stressed that housing supply is not keeping up with demand. Looking at the driver license data, he estimates this growth has created a demand for 100,000 owner-occupied homes between 2012 and 2017. However, during this time, we have built and sold roughly 60,000 homes, creating a housing supply shortfall and causing upward pressure on home prices. The average list price for new construction within formal subdivisions, Britsch stated, has risen 20 percent in Snohomish County and 24 percent in King County year over year.

Britsch warned we are running out of land at a rapid pace. With 10 months’ supply of vacant developed lots in Snohomish County, he said we’re at "crisis level" in terms of lot inventory. The North Creek market area, which has been very robust in recent years, has dried up, Britsch said.

Since 2009, the entire Puget Sound region has had a net loss of 3,018 lots coming out of the system, not to be replaced. More importantly, in that same time frame, the available finished lot inventory has declined by 17,879. Britsch also pointed to Northwest Multiple Listing Service data, which shows King and Snohomish counties have just over a two-week supply of homes for sale.

Although the current housing market is showing signs of weakening, Britsch believes it will remain strong. The housing market is all part of a cycle and we can expect an adjustment in sales, he said. Britsch predicts core areas from King County to South Snohomish County will continue to see double-digit appreciation due to lack of inventory.

Founded in 1909, the Master Builders Association of King and Snohomish Counties (MBAKS) has grown to become the largest residential homebuilders association in the United States. With 2,900 member companies, the association is dedicated to membership value, housing advocacy, community service, and financial stewardship throughout the Puget Sound region.